Statistics are like bikinis snd the Trail Blazers -Part2

I believe when the playoffs started the Blazers were a 1 in 40 odds of winning it all.  David Hollinger
had them at about the same odds with a 3.4 percent chance to make the conference finals.

My gut would have gone with that a week ago.

Then again, everything about this team goes against my gut.

 So here is my back of the envelope calculation.

I assume about an 85 percent chance of advancing against the Beard and Friends
I assume the following series a tossup. (Expect the unexpected, I will assign a  45 percent chance of winning each)

So that has us at around an 18 percent chance of going to the conference finals.

So statistcs being like a bikini. Those numbers make sense, however this team defies logic.

I have the odds of Lebron James spraining an ankle at .05. One odd event make statistics more like the Bikini islands. Exotic (I think) and way out there.
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